Y2K - How Serious Will It Be?
by Rich Deem

What is Y2K?

Y2K stands for year 2000 and has been specifically used to designate the problems computer systems may experience as the next century begins. The problem began in the early days of computing, as programmers took shortcuts in the expression of dates by using only the last two digits of a date to represent the year. This technique worked fine as long as all the dates occurred in the same century. However, as the year 2000 approaches, some of the software and chips that used 2 digit dates will interpret the year 2000 as 1900, resulting in anomalous calculations and unreliable computer operation. The problem seems rather trivial, but the extent of the problem is such that it cannot be ignored. Two major areas need to be corrected:

1. The software and databases that run on computer systems needs to be modified to use 4 digit dates.
2. Computer-based equipment needs to be checked to determine if the embedded computer chips will function properly in the year 2000. Chips and/or systems need to be replaced.

What kind of problems can Y2K lead to?

There have been numerous reports (many from "Christian" groups) that claim the year 2000 will result in widespread chaos and even societal collapse in Western nations. Many people claim that all power will be lost for weeks to months. The loss of power will disrupt telecommunications, banking, businesses and governmental activity. Water and food will be cut off because of these disruptions. This will result in widespread civil disobedience, rioting, and complete societal collapse. Are these scenarios realistic, and, if so, are they probable? This paper will examine these issues from a factual basis and attempt to assign probabilities to these "worse-case" scenarios.

I do not want to minimize the potentially serious outcomes of the Y2K computer problem. If the year 2000 had begun in 1998, virtually all of the most extreme predictions most likely would have occurred! Even if the worse case scenarios do not occur, your livelihood could still be at risk. If your business does not remediate the problem, it could possibly fail and you could lose your job. I expect that a number of businesses (1-10% in the U.S.) will fail as a result of Y2K failures and/or supply/distribution problems. It is likely that there will be a mild to severe recession because of Y2K failures.

How do we evaluate the seriousness of the Y2K problem to come up with a realistic outlook of potential problems and failures? I will use the approach that is used on the rest of this web site ö get information from the primary sources and experts in their fields. What is my expertise in this matter? Basically none, which is why it took me six months of research before publishing a paper on Y2K. I do have extensive knowledge of computers and have done software programming (all of which is Y2K compliant). I regularly keep up with the latest developments in the field of information technologies (IT), including operating systems, programming solutions, and networking from both a personal interest, and as the "computer expert" in my department at work.

 Y2K and the Electrical Industry

The most serious threat to our way of life is the potential that electrical supplies will be disrupted by Y2K problems. If electrical supplies are interrupted for a significant period of time, then the most extreme predictions most likely will happen. Therefore, we need to look at the effect of Y2K on our nation's electrical production and distribution systems. Much of the information on the effect of Y2K on the electrical industry was obtained from reports submitted by the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) to the Department of Energy (DOE) on September 17, 1998, January 11, 1999, and April 30, 1999. The first and second and third  and fourth and final NERC Report to the DOE can be downloaded in PDF format from the NERC website. Updates to the original report are included below.

Summary of NERC Findings

The NERC's initial finding states the following:

"Recent reports in the news media and on the Internet regarding anticipated widespread electricity outages are unsubstantiated. In an industry that meets record peak demands during heat waves and quickly restores service to millions of customers who lost power due to a hurricane or earthquake, preparing for and dealing with operating risks is an ingrained part of the business."¹

In their summary, the report goes on to state:

"The initial findings of this report are that the impacts of Y2K on electrical systems appear to be less than first anticipated. With continued work toward finding and fixing components that may be Y2K deficient and with properly coordinated contingency planning, the operating risks presented by Y2K can be effectively mitigated to achieve reliable and sustained operation of electric systems into the Year 2000."²

The Embedded Chip Problem

Let us look at the reasons for their optimism and see if this conclusion is supported by the facts. Why does the NERC conclude that the impact of Y2K on the electrical industry will be less than first anticipated? First, much of the supply and distribution system is not computerized. Second, the effect of embedded chips on the supply and distribution systems is much less than first thought. Their conclusions:

Discussions with these people at organizations that have completed significant amounts of testing indicate that Y2K may have less impact on electrical systems than first thought. Electrical systems consist mainly of wires and metal devices. Most equipment is electromechanical, meaning there is less dependence on digital controls.³

The NERC estimates that "less than 1-2% of these devices [embedded chips] may use a time/date function in a manner that could result in a Y2K malfunction of the device."⁴ only a small fraction of these embedded chips actually impact the function of the devices in which they are imbedded. Much of the electric industry infrastructure is old (prior to the 1960's), having been built before the pervasiveness of computer controls. Therefore, much of the actual generating capacity is not dependent upon computerized controls. Personally, I have visited a small local hydroelectric generator (located less than a mile from my house) and can confirm that there is not a computer chip in the entire place. However, many of the electrical distribution systems rely upon computers and chip-based systems to direct the flow of power. Except for a few of the most recent systems, these can be manually overridden. I have a friend who works for a major Southern California electrical utility who has been personally involved in Y2K remediation (although he has already completed Y2K remediation/testing for his unit). He has noted that they are finding very few problems in embedded chips. Systems that are non-compliant will be either retired, replaced, or fixed. In one instance, the cost of replacing a system was prohibitive. They have determined that turning the date back to 1972 (the last year that has a calendar identical to the year 2000) will allow the system to function until it is retired. The anomalous date (38 years in the past) reported by the system does not impact any other systems, and so the system can continue to run until it is retired.

Current Status of the Electricity-Generating Capacity

I have seen many Internet sites that state that the testing and remediation cannot be completed in time. What is the status of the electrical industry in this regard? First, we should go into some of the details of how Y2K remediation is done. The first phase involves taking an inventory of the physical assets, the second, an assessment of the Y2K status of the assets, and the third, the actual remediation/testing phase. The NERC sent out a questionnaire to determine the progress of the industry in meeting the goals of becoming Y2K ready. In the first survey, they received responses from the utilities representing 84% of the electricity-generating capacity of the industry. A number of utilities refused to respond because of advice of their legal departments or unwillingness to participate in yet another survey (they are reportedly receiving up to 30 requests/month).⁵ However, in subsequent surveys, 98% of the industry responded, which removed some of the doubt expressed regarding the first survey. The results from all the NERC reports are listed in the table below:

A final report (November 18, 1999) indicated that 99.8% of remediation and testing was completed by October, 1999.¹⁰ Actual testing of the remediated systems has begun, and according to the August, 1999 NERC report:

"more than 100 units at dozens of utilities have been tested while operating on-line and producing power. These tests consist of simultaneously moving as many systems and components as possible forward or backward to various critical dates. These tests require an extraordinary level of preparation and coordination to ensure the safety of all systems and that the impact to the electric system would be minimal should a unit trip during the test. Of all the integrated unit tests reported to date, not one test of a fully remediated unit has resulted in a Y2k failure that caused the unit to trip. In some cases, units that were moved forward to a post January 1, 2000 date have been left to continue running with clocks set ahead with no negative consequences. Others report setting units back as a mitigation strategy. A typical setback is 28 years to more closely align the calendar dates."¹¹

Nuclear Power Plants

Many Internet sites are claiming that nuclear power plants will not be ready in time, and, in fact, will be shut down prior to the year 2000. The NERC reports smash that myth. In fact, the nuclear power industry is more tightly regulated than the rest of the electrical industry and began Y2K remediation a year before the rest of the industry. All of the nuclear generating facilities completed the initial inventory by May, 1998 and most were scheduled to have completed their assessments by the end December, 1998.¹² The industry was virtually done by June, 1999 with 99% of remediation and testing completed (some completing later due to scheduled outages and maintenance).¹³  The NERC reported that 100% of all nuclear power plants were Y2K ready as of October, 1999.¹⁰  The NERC reports indicated that safety was never a concern for Y2K failures at any nuclear power plants:

"No utility has found a Y2k problem that would have prevented safety systems from shutting down a plant, if conditions required after the turn of the century. Thus, Y2k problems in nuclear facilities do not represent a public health and safety issue."¹⁴

Electrical Distribution Systems

The energy management and distribution systems are also virtually done, with greater than 99% of the actual remediation/testing finished.¹⁵ A final NERC report indicated that 99.84% of distribution capacity was Y2K ready by October, 1999.¹⁰ Many of these operations are date-sensitive, which requires Y2K testing. However, a number of systems synchronize their central clock function to a signal provided by a Global Positioning Satellite, which would automatically correct time and date anomalies. Many Internet sites express a concern that since electrical distribution is tied into a grid by computerized distribution, that a failure in part of the grid will bring down the entire electrical grid. Although this is possible, it is not uncorrectable. Although much of an energy management and distribution system's functions are automated, operators continuously monitor power system conditions and have the ability to operate manually (with perhaps some loss of economic efficiency) by communicating verbally with personnel in power plants and substations. In addition, utilities have the ability to cut off parts of the grid that are negatively impacting their own ability to supply power. In fact, Southern California Edison cut off the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (DWP) from their grid during the Northridge earthquake so that they could restore power to their region without being negatively impacted by the slow response of the DWP.

There was also a question of power plants being unable to restart after a power outage. I came across an article that discusses the ability of power plants to "black start". It said:

"Obviously, the first thing is to do is to restart at least one of the power plants. To do that, the plant needs what we call black-start capability. It has to be able to first generate a small amount of power to energize the motors and the controls in the plant to start the plant itself. All 200 nuclear plants and many fossil plants have diesel generators whose purpose is to supply the internal power needs in case of emergency." Of course, all hydroelectric power plants have "black-start capability."

Many Internet sites claim that there is a lack of spare electricity-generating capacity. During the summer, when everyone is running air conditioners, it is true that there is very little spare capacity. However, Y2K will occur in the winter, and on a weekend (the 1st begins after a Friday night), which has some of the lowest demand for power (typically 40-50% of peak summer demand¹⁶). It is very fortunate that there will be an entire weekend to work out bugs and get power supply problems fixed before the business crunch of the workweek. Even so, a loss of 26-50% of the total electrical generating capacity due to Y2K failures will produce only local outages, because of the reduced demand of the winter season.

In conclusion, it seems reasonable that there will no electrical industry Y2K failures on or after January 1, 2000. From my perspective, I think it would be very improbable that entire electrical grids will fail. According to Jim Calloway, year 2000 coordinator for the Public Utilities Commission (PUC), "The Y2K issue is a concern, but I don't think it is the potentially catastrophic issue that it was once perceived to be."¹⁷ According to Jon C. Arnold, chief technology officer for the Edison Electric Institute in Washington, D.C., "In any industry there is no guarantee that there won't be problems, but the electric industry is probably one that is the most prepared."¹⁷ If there are some generation and/or distribution system failures, the electrical industry is used to dealing with emergencies and should have these problems fixed within hours to days. The spare electrical capacity should be sufficient to more than make up for any failures.

Y2K and the embedded chip problem

The problem with embedded microchips is probably the most serious because of the difficulty in identifying and replacing the problem chips. However, as noted above, and in other studies, the problem with embedded chips appears to be less than originally thought.¹⁸ According to the analyst company Gartner Group, "the risk of embedded systems crashing because of Y2K is based on ill informed and over hyped information." According to their report, "Only 1 in 100,000 free-standing microcontroller chips are likely to fail. Those that do fail will fail at the millennium, and the majority of these will only fail once."¹⁹ In fact, those embedded systems that are off during the century date change will not fail when started after the date change has already occurred. Early this year, Ann K. Coffou of the Giga Information Group, a consulting firm, was among the many experts who were warning that most businesses and government agencies were too far behind in making the needed fixes. However, the finding that embedded chips are causing very few, if any, problems in nearly all systems tested has changed her mind. She recently stated:

"It's not as bad as we thought. I've started to feel much more optimistic."¹²

A simple solution to the embedded chip problem is to turn back the date of your system to 1972.^22-23 This year is the last calendar year that is identical to the year 2000. In fact, this very solution will be used in Evansville so that they don't have to replace all of their traffic signals.²² The date will be reported incorrectly, but this is only a display problem, since it doesn't affect any other systems. Other cities and agencies are finding that this is an easy, economical way to solve certain Y2K problems.²³ This simple solution can be used on all systems that don't require accurate date output to another computer system. This solution has been recently used to "repair" an old legacy system. California Casualty Management Company, a San Mateo-based insurance company, has found a unique way to buy more time. Using a method they call "The Minus-28 solution," California Casualty's programmers have "turned back the clock" for every date occurrence in its system. All dates that are input into the system are changed to 28 years in the past. The legacy computer system operates on these dates as it usually does and will not encounter the year 2000 for another 28 years. All dates that are output from the system are incremented by 28 years, so that all policies, etc. are printed with the correct date.²⁴ The company plans to update its computer system, but can now wait to do so at their leisure.

Y2K and the banking/financial industry

As of June, 1999, a Y2K audit of the nation's 21,352 banks, thrifts and credit unions showed that only 74 (0.3%) were failing in their efforts to address the year 2000 computer problem.^25-26 Since 1997, regulators have twice audited every financial institution in the country, requiring in-depth progress reports and documentation of Y2K readiness. The Y2K audit scrutinizes everything from software/hardware inventories, Y2K solutions and test results to contingency plans, building-system electronics and Y2K credit-risk reports on major customers. Nearly all of the failing institutions are small banks and credit unions.

The National Credit Union Association announced that it was now remediated all of its computers and software, as independently verified by the by the accounting firm KPMG Peat Marwick. Of the nation's 11,106 federally insured credit unions, 10,460 were rated as satisfactory; 512 were rated as needs improvement; and 35 were rated as unsatisfactory.²⁷ The stock market has been working on Y2K remediation for some time and ran tests involving several hundred firms, trading virtually every type of equity, which were completed in April, 1999. When the date was set to January 3, 2000 (the first trading date of 2000) all trades were completely successfully.²⁸ Y2K has already impacted me in the financial arena. My bank recently issued all new account numbers for their VISA cards, as part of their Y2K remediation.

The Federal Reserve Bank's system was 98% Y2K compliant at the beginning of June, 1999 and was on tract to be 100% compliant by the end of June, according to Robert Parry, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.²⁹ World banks took and ambitious step in early June by testing their systems through simulated transactions on a pushed up date of January 3, 2000 (the first banking day of 2000).³⁰ One hundred ninety banks from 19 countries (82 US banks plus banks from the European Bankers Association, Australia, Great Britain, TARGET, the European Central Bank's payment system, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Korea and Poland) participated in the tests to determine if their Y2K remediation efforts functioned properly. According to Director of Information Clearing Systems, George Thomas, "I think this will go a long way to show the world that the world payment system is intact and ready to go for 2000."³⁰

Y2K and the medical industry

I work for a major medical center, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, in Los Angeles. As with any business, there are potential Y2K problems in accounting systems, computers and computer networks. In addition, there are a number of medical devices that use embedded chips to perform some of their functions. However, the number of Y2K-sensitive medical devices is small. For example, Dakota Heartland Health Systems inventoried 2,500 pieces of equipment, of which, only 20 were not year 2000 compliant. Only 10 of those 20 directly impacted patient care.³¹ Canadian hospitals have found that ~3% of their medical devices were not Y2K compliant.³¹ We had a Y2K expert from Cedars-Sinai come to our lab checking on potential Y2K problems with our laboratory equipment. They are testing embedded chip systems in laboratory equipment, and haven't found any problems so far. If this is any indication of the embedded chip problem, it may indicate that the problem isn't as serious as many have said. I got to talk to him for a few minutes about what the hospital will be doing to be Y2K compliant. Cedars-Sinai has adopted the policy of "its cheaper to replace than be sued" and so are replacing all their EKG and other medical equipment that is not Y2K compliant. It's a little radical, but guaranteed to fix any problems. They are also replacing all of their accounting software that is not Y2K compliant. This will actually be a good thing, since it will unite the now separate accounting systems found in the hospital. A recent report (July, 1999) states that the American Hospital Association says 99% of hospitals are fully Y2K-compliant, or will be by the end of the year.³²

Y2K and the telecommunications industry

AT&T Corp., the nation's largest long-distance carrier, completed fixing and testing all systems that handle telephone calls and data transmissions on January 8, 1999.¹² The company plans to spend the remainder of 1999 running additional tests with local telephone companies. Other large telecommunications companies plan to have their systems ready before mid-year.

Y2K and businesses

The Y2K outlook for businesses is quite variable and very dependent upon the individual situation. Most large and medium-sized companies are well on their way to Y2K compliance.²¹ In fact a recent report indicates that 94% of S&P 500 companies will be Y2K ready by September 1, 1999.³³ A recent study by the Gartner Group found that 80% of the businesses that haven't yet started fixing their year 2000 problems (comprising 25% of businesses surveyed) are small businesses.³⁴ For manufacturing, most systems are not time/date sensitive, so that Y2K will have no impact. Some of the automated manufacturing plants may have Y2K problems caused by the changing of the century. However, most systems don't shut down even if there is a bad date. Businesses may experience Y2K problems in their accounting, computer, and networking systems if they are not Y2K compliant. The simple solution for most businesses will be to replace the non-compliant systems with ones that are compliant. As I surf the Internet, I have noticed that virtually every software manufacturer has a statement about Y2K compliance on their web site. Those databases that use two digit dates will also have to be converted to handle four digit dates. In most instances, the task is relatively trivial. Many businesses use customized applications as part of their normal business operations. Many of these custom applications will have to be rewritten or replaced. There are a number of Y2K applications that automate and/or facilitate the task of reviewing millions of lines of computer code. For example, one agency of the federal government (Department of Interior's Bureau of Indian Affairs) solved its Y2K problem in 10 days using a program from Millennium Solutions and its own staff to edit 1.58 million lines of code.³⁵ Obviously, if a federal agency can do this, any normal business should be able to do the same.

In addition to fixing the code, there are programs that reside between the application (non-Y2K compliant) and the operating system. Vision:Phaseshift produces one such language-independent run-time utility that intercepts dates and automatically corrects them, insulating both the non-compliant program and data sources from improper date reporting. The price isn't cheap at $275,000, but it is much cheaper than reprogramming all the code in mainframe computers.³⁶

Y2K and your personal computer

The functioning of your PC is not critical in the overall scheme of things, but is something that needs to be addressed, especially if you use your PC for your own business. There are numerous programs, many of which are available free on the Internet, that test and fix BIOS problems, Windows problems, and software problems. Links to these resources can be found on another page, Y2K and Your Personal Computer.

Y2K and the federal/local government

How is the United Stated government doing in moving to Y2K compliance? According to Representative Horn, all federal agencies were 99-100% compliant by November 15, 1999.³⁷ The federal government earned a "B+" grade, which was much better than previous grades (from D to C).³⁸ Some agencies are still developing contingency plans and are attempting to determine compliance of their interacting partners. For instance, a number of Federal Programs are dependent upon the cooperation of state and local agencies.³⁹ In general, 80-90 of states reported Y2K compliance for these services as of November, 1999. The Department of Agriculture is dependent upon the states for food stamps, WIC, child nutrition programs and food safety inspections. A few states are not yet Y2K compliant, so those services could be interrupted if there are computer failures. Other departments at risk due to unprepared program partners include Education (student aid requires functioning of state, granting agencies, and school administration), Health and Human Services (child care, child welfare, child support enforcement, Medicaid, Medicare, and other assistance programs dependent upon state and local agencies), HUD (public housing agency dependence), Labor (unemployment insurance dependent upon state compliance), and Transportation (air traffic control is dependent upon airline carrier compliance).

I have bad news for those of you who thought you might not have to pay your taxes because the IRS would be unable to process them. IRS officials announced in early January that they will finish work and testing on 70,000 computer programs by the end of the month, a process that has taken 1,000 people two years to complete. IRS workers have rewritten some 40 million lines of computer code. According to the project director, John Yost, "By the end of January, every computer program we have will be Y2K-compliant."⁴⁰

The U.S. Department of Labor's IT division for unemployment insurance received "a clean report" from all regional offices on benefits claims filed on Jan. 4, says John Sharkey, chief of the IT division. Claims were properly and timely processed by all 50 states, Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico, he says. Claims processing was vulnerable to Y2K problems beginning Jan. 4 because the claims processed that day expire 12 months later, forcing systems to deal with the year 2000.⁴¹

According to Representative Horn of the House Subcommittee on Government Management, Information, and Technology, all federal departments should complete Y2K remediation in time.³⁷ It is somewhat encouraging that the federal government went from a grade F to a grade D between the June 1998 and the November 1998 and from a D to a C+ in Horn's February 22, 1999 report. In the November, 1999 report, Horn increased the grading criteria, but still increased the government's grade to a B⁺.³⁸

Local governments - The extent of remediation by state and local governments is highly variable, with most concerns centering around city and county agencies that have not adequately addressed the Y2K issue. For this reason, in January, 1999, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) urged local agencies to address the issue now.⁴² If you need to deal with city and county agencies, try to get your paperwork done before year's end, since it is likely that some state and local agencies may not be compliant by year's end.

Y2K and the Post Office

According to postal authorities, the mail will be delivered after January 1, 2000. The postal service recently completed tests of mail processing equipment that were successful. According to Deputy Postmaster General Michael S. Coughlin, "These tests were able to verify the ability of our equipment to accurately sort mail in the year 2000 environment."⁴³ However, the postal service has more than 500 identified systems that still need attention, including payroll functions, management databases and employee benefit processing.

Y2K and Transportation

I haven't seen much on the effect of Y2K upon transportation industries. Most of the actual vehicles used for transportation are completely unaffected by year 2000 issues. However, all industries are dependent upon computers for scheduling, billing, etc., and these systems must be made compliant in order for transportation industries to function. The nation's railroads are generally not at risk. According to Burlington Northern & Santa Fe Railway Co.:

"Most signal and locomotive equipment does not contain embedded devices... All critical BNSF equipment containing embedded devices was remediated and tested by December [1998]."⁴⁴

Other issues of relevance regarding the effect of Y2K on rail transportation:

• Crossing signals and switches are free of Y2K problems because they are "event-driven," activated when a train drives over certain portion of track, rather than time- or date-driven. The new "intelligent" grade crossing signals installed in Connecticut and Michigan are Y2K compliant.
• Locomotives. Sixty-five percent of the nation's 20,000 diesel-electric trains were built before 1985 and have no onboard electronics.
• General Motors and General Electric, two principal manufacturers of trains with onboard microprocessors, have been testing for Y2K compliance. So far, the only problems found do not affect operations.
• Some trains are equipped with electronically controlled air brakes and integrated cab systems with computerized flat-panel display screens. These suppliers have certified their equipment as Y2K compliant.⁴⁴

Miscellaneous Y2K myths

Compounding Y2K Failures on January 1, 2000 will shut down most systems - Many people mistakenly believe that the majority of Y2K failures will happen at midnight on January 1, 2000. However, Lou Marcoccio, director of Y2K research at Gartner Group Inc., recently testified before Congress on the Y2K issue and said it is a misconception that all failures will occur on or around Jan. 1. He said only 8 to 10 percent of all failures related to Y2K will occur within two weeks of Jan. 1.⁴⁵
Not enough personnel - Many Internet sites claim that there is neither the money nor personnel to handle all the Y2K remediation necessary. However, according to the Cutter study, on average, corporate America is spending just 24% of their 1998 information technology budgets and personnel on Y2K projects.⁴⁶ This somehow seems counter-intuitive to the message of those sites. If companies believed they were going to fail because of Y2K problems, one would think they would put more resources into the solutions. As mentioned previously, the conversion of code to Y2K compliance can be handled by ordinary staff (as demonstrated by a bureau of the federal government). In January, 1999, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter's Technology Research Group surveyed 75 senior IT (Information Technologies) executives and CIO's, mostly from Fortune 500 companies, about their projected IT budgets for 1999. Two-thirds of the respondents said that their companies would spend less than 10 percent of their budgets on the Year 2000 problem for the coming fiscal year. Only 13 percent plan to give it more than a third of their budgets - a lower percentage than in 1998.⁴⁷ Reports have been issued by many websites indicating that COBOL programmers would be in such demand that they would be making six digit salaries. However, according to Howard Rubin, a research fellow at Meta Group Inc. in Stamford, Conn., Cobol programmers are earning between $45,000 and $50,000 annually. Ruben stated, "The year of the $100,000 Cobol programmer went the same way as predictions that it would cost $3.50 per line of code to fix year 2000 problems.⁴⁸ According to Lou Marcoccio, director of Y2K research for Gartner Group, "The demand for programmers because of Y2K has been extremely minimal compared to what people were claiming two years ago."⁴⁹ Likewise, many Y2K consulting firms have found that their services are no longer required. Peritus Software Services Inc. recently had to layoff 40 employees. According to Company CFO, John Garabedian, "We anticipated more (Y2K) business, but, as such, that's been curtailed."⁵⁰ The idea that neither money nor personnel are available to handle all Y2K remediation is not supported by the facts.
Computers are running at capacity - Many individuals also claim that computers are running near capacity, and so are unable to run Y2K testing. This is false. For most companies and agencies, computer systems may run near capacity during the day, but usually perform maintenance and backup functions at night. The information systems department of my company does their maintenance and testing during "off" hours.
Medical implants - There are a number of sites that claim that medical implants will malfunction in the year 2000. The notion that pacemakers will stop working next year "is an urban legend," says Thomas B. Shope, who is working on year 2000 issues at the Food and Drug Administration. "Implanted devices don't depend on the date."⁵¹
Airlines and air travel - The risk of critical aircraft and air traffic control systems failing because of the millennium bug is almost zero, contrary to numerous Internet reports. The director-general of the group that runs communications networks for the world's airlines and airport authorities (SITA), John Watson stated, "We're talking about being 99 percent compliant"⁵² Likewise, embedded chips in planes present few Y2K problems. Boeing Company has found embedded Y2K problems in three different on-board systems affecting roughly 750 of the 12,000 commercial planes it has manufactured over the years. In 700 of the non-compliant aircraft, the embedded bug would merely cause the year to be displayed incorrectly on a control panel. In the other 50, though, the bug would keep the plane from ever leaving the gate. However, the problem in these few planes is easily fixed by updates from Boeing.⁵¹ Many people had been saying that travelers would be unable to get flights in the year 2000. However, the first reservations for January 1, 2000 were taken February 4, 1999 with no glitches in any airline or travel agency computers.⁵³ In April, 1999, the Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) tested a remediated tracking system at Denver International Airport with no glitches reported.²⁸ The FAA reported completion of remediation of its 65 mission-critical air traffic control systems, along with all its non-mission-critical systems on June 30, 1999, according to FAA spokesman Paul Takemoto.⁵⁴
Bad Data from non-compliant banks will corrupt all banking systems - The fact is that banks are international, regulated by numerous authorities, and accustomed to the assumption of miscommunications. In practice, it is highly unusual for banks to exchange data directly with each other. They use a variety of banking industry carriers, such as S.W.I.F.T. (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications) or the Federal Reserve System's FedWire to exchange data.⁵⁵ These data transport highways work by having a standard message protocol or format that dictates to both sender and receiver where and what data are placed in a message, and how to interpret that data. These systems already use four digit year dates. In reality, there are header records that state what's coming in the message, then detail records, and finally trailer records saying what was sent. If anything is out of sync, then the receiver will respond, "Full message not understood. Send again." Therefore, Y2K problems that corrupt data will likely be regarded as unintelligible, and, as such, will be rejected. It is possible that an incorrect date could be inserted into the date field (likely 1900). However, it will become immediately obvious that the date field is incorrect (there were no electronic transactions in 1900) and can be easily corrected. I wouldn't be surprised if most systems already have means of correcting such obvious errors. An actual test of world banking transactions and data exchange was held in June, 1999 with no problems found.³¹

Recent Reports

FEMA has been warning emergency services officials from local agencies to plan for numerous small disruptions as a result of the possible Y2K related computer glitches, although they believe that those disruptions should be localized and brief. Deputy director of FEMA, Mike Walker, in a recent Y2K preparedness workshop at a midtown Kansas City hotel, stated:

"In any event, there's no need for people to stockpile supplies. Instead, the public can prepare for Y2K the same way they would for a winter storm. Every household should be equipped with a disaster kit, which includes at least three days of bottled water, nonperishable food, blankets and battery-operated flashlights and radios. There's no need to head for the hills. The sky is not falling. We know what the problem is and we know how to fix it."⁵⁶

Walker also urged participants not to panic or believe the many rumors and unsupported allegations that have been attributed to the Y2K problem:

"I have a great deal of faith in the American people. I know they will see through the naysayers and fearmongers who are trying to scare us or make a buck."⁵⁶

Walker gave this advice before the House Government Reform Committee's Government Management Subcommittee, "It is important to say the sky is not falling because of Y2K. There is no need to hoard, no need to take money out of banks, no need to head for the hills."⁵⁷

Edward Yardeni, chief economist for the investment- banking firm Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., has recently speculated that the lack of spending on Y2K projects by S&P 500 companies indicates that projects are falling significantly behind.⁵⁸ In fact, as of the third quarter of 1998, companies, on average had spent just 53.3% of their total projected Y2K budgets. The assumption is that they have completed just over 50% of needed remediation. The problem with this assumption is that companies tend to wait to replace computer systems, since they get more bang for their buck the longer they wait. In addition, AT&T was listed in the report as having spent only 47.8% of their Y2K budget, although they became Y2K compliant not long after the report was issued, in mid-January, 1999. So much for that theory!

The U.S. Senate Special Committee On The Year 2000 Technology Problem recently said:

"The committee has found that the most frustrating aspect of addressing the Y2K problems is sorting fact from fiction.... The Internet surges with rumors of massive Y2K test failures that turn out to be gross misstatements, while image-sensitive corporations downplay real Y2K problems. The good news is that the talk of the death of civilization, to borrow from Mark Twain, has been greatly exaggerated."⁵⁹

According to the Washington Post:

"With one year to go until the world's computers confront their electronic day of reckoning, a growing number of technology experts say large U.S. corporations and government agencies have speeded their repair work dramatically and now appear to be on track to solve the Year 2000 problem... specialists are dismissing doomsday predictions of widespread power outages, telephone failures and grounded jetliners in the United States."¹²

Utah's Bob Bennett, who heads a Senate Y2K committee recently stated, "I'm very optimistic that this is not the end of Western civilization as we know it."¹² After having predicted a 40% chance of electrical grid failures last year, he now estimates the probability of failure as only 4%. However, he expects Y2K problems to have serious impacts in other countries and perhaps a global recession:

"In most areas, but not all, lights will stay on, banks will have cash and phones will work. Other countries will not be as fortunate...After immersing myself in the issue for more than two years, my primary concern is...an old-fashioned, global recession." - Sen. Bennett, Washington Times.⁶⁰

According to many who have predicted widespread Y2K problems, numerous Y2K failures should have started happening in the beginning of 1999, since many programs look ahead a full year. However, few, if any failures have occurred:

"But so far, there are no signs of such failures, he said. Fears that the millennium bug would bring computer chaos in the first weeks of 1999 are so far mostly unfounded -- an outcome that has raised existing optimism that systems will handle the Year 2000 date change without major disruptions." (Bob Cohen, an analyst with the Information Technology Association of America)⁶¹

Computer consultant Peter de Jager:

"I believe, personally, there will be no power disruptions in North America because (no problems) have been found"⁶² (February 13, 1999)

"We've finally broken the back of the Y2K problem. Most if not all companies are working on this issue. They are fixing, or have fixed, their systems. They have examined, or are examining, their embedded system problems. We are, for the most part, no longer ignoring Y2K."⁵⁹ (March 13, 1999)

Food Shortages? - According to Agriculture Secretary, Dan Glickman, the Y2K problem will not cause widespread food shortages in the United States, because many farmers do not rely on automated systems and because large domestic companies will continue to operate in spite of the so-called millennium bug. "By and large, our nation's food supply will remain reliable," Glickman told a special Senate committee studying the Y2K problem.⁶³

Get your guns now! The panic caused by irresponsible reporting has caused a shortage of guns and ammunition.⁶⁴ One can be certain that we will reap the benefits of all these extra guns in our homes by their increased use on our "loved ones."

Good Things from Y2K? - Y2K is not just the story of computer errors that threaten to undermine computer systems. For many companies, it has been an opportunity to upgrade systems and move into systems that are more efficient. Many companies have integrated e-commerce solutions into upgrades required for Y2K remediation. Locally, Southern California Gas Company has used the opportunity to upgrade their automated control system near downtown Los Angeles. In order to facilitate testing of Y2K remediated systems, they built an identical unit 75 miles to the east. The backup unit has been tested by rolling the date forward to 2000 with no problems found.⁶⁵ For the Los Angeles area, the advantage of having a backup unit many miles from the original is obvious, since an earthquake that destroys one unit will not shut down the system, requiring weeks to fix.

Why are so many predicting dire Y2K consequences?

1. Greed
2. Book/video sales - Greed
3. Sensational articles sell magazines/newspapers - Greed
4. Exorbitant consulting fees - Greed
5. Selling updated software to fix minor Y2K problems - Greed
6. Selling replacement equipment to fix a date display problem - Greed
7. Did I mention Greed?

Why are Christians predicting widespread Y2K problems?

There are several reasons why Christians are predicting widespread Y2K problems. I do not think that most Christians are doing this for greed or any other malicious intent. Most, I believe are deceived and actually believe that they are helping others, rather than being part of the problem. Some Christians have said that Y2K will be God's judgment on the United States for becoming secular and immoral. However, the United States is the best prepared nation in the world and will have the fewest Y2K-related failures of any nation. Historically, at the turn of each century, and especially at the turn of a millennium, Christians look for the return of Jesus Christ, as if multiples of hundreds of years have any meaning to God. The Bible gives specific signs (but no dates) for the end, not all of which have been fulfilled at this time. Y2K has the potential to produce some of the chaos seen in the book of Revelation (which describes the times of the end). However, much of what is seen in the book of Revelation is the result of politics in the Middle East and a deep hatred of the Jews by their neighbors, coupled with a desperate attempt by Satan to convince the ungodly to destroy those who love God. It is possible that Y2K could initiate some of these events, although it is certainly not a big player in the subsequent events. Another motivation for Christians predicting widespread Y2K problems is that they are anticipating God's judgment on a world becoming more wicked each day.⁶⁶ Although it is possible that God could use Y2K to judge the industrialized nations, this is not anything that we see in the book of Revelation. In fact, God's exit from the scene during the tribulation events of Revelation is painfully obvious.⁶⁷ The ungodly are allowed to persecute God's people to a degree never seen before in the history of the world,⁶⁸ such that "If those days had not been cut short, no one would survive..."⁶⁹

"Hope/pray for the best, but prepare for the worst"

This is the standard advice of those who claim Y2K will have serious consequences. Do you realize how ridiculous/non-biblical this advice is? How many of you get up in the morning and say to yourself, "Today I have prepared for the worst." We prepare for what is most likely, since to prepare for the worst would consume all of our time with little or no benefit (and likely detriment). Don't waste God's money preparing for things that will not occur. There is no way that we can prepare for all the worst that the world has to offer us. Jesus said that the worry of the world would make us unfruitful⁷⁰ and would weigh down our hearts.⁷¹ If we attempt to "prepare for the worst" we will fail, become depressed and be of no use to the kingdom of God.

A few Christians are capitalizing upon the fear to make money selling books and survival-type items. Others, such as Gary North want Y2K to bring down the entire world system in order to institute a theocracy. North's agenda and motivation for his website is "Christian Reconstruction". In general, I feel the motivation for most Christians in promoting the idea of an extensive Y2K problem is the hope of God's intervention in the ungodly events of our Age.

The Church is deceived - However, whenever the Church is deceived, one can be assured that the "father of lies"⁷³ is behind it. Why would Satan want the Church to promote devastating Y2K scenarios? First, by causing Christians to focus on chaos and survival, we are distracted from the primary task at hand - evangelizing the world. Second, much of our resources and efforts are going into "Y2K preparation." Much of the Church's money, which could have gone into evangelism, is going into the purchase of water storage and purification systems, electrical generators, and food that nobody will want to eat unless there isn't any other (we are much too addicted to fast food that can't be kept for long periods of time). Third, Christians are parroting the words of those who are promoting unlikely scenarios that add to the deception. Although Christians are spreading the word to be prepared for trouble in order not to panic, the message received by non-Christians is one that elicits panic. Therefore, Christians are playing directly into Satan's hand to create panic and fear. Ultimately, the fear of Y2K will probably result in more chaos than the computer problem itself. If things continue as they have this last year, by the end of next year there will be massive panic in the industrialized nations, resulting in bank runs, a stock market crash and a severe recession/depression. The Federal Reserve Board has already allocated an additional $60 billion supply of cash to be infused into the economy in the last quarter of 1999 in anticipation of bank runs.⁷⁴ However, when January 1, 2000 finally arrives with a whimper, Christians could be blamed for causing the panic of 1999, which could lead to widespread persecution, fomenting the scenarios seen in the book of Revelation. Alternatively, when Christians have told non-Christians to prepare for Y2K and caused them to spend hundreds to thousands of dollars, when such preparations turn out to be foolhardy, the Church will be discredited and the cause for Christ hampered. These are just possible scenarios. I don't want to indicate that this is a message from the Lord - I don't know what is going to happen.

A call for Christian Accountability and Virtue

As more and more reports indicate that Y2K disruptions will be minor, many churches and organizations are promoting the same old message - to prepare for the worst. What they are not telling people is that the most likely worst-case scenario seems to be a recession - something that is difficult to prepare for. Many Christian organizations are using references to authority (Red Cross, FEMA, Senator Bennett, etc.) and intentionally leaving out critical information from that material in order to produce deception. They cite the Red Cross' call for preparation, but do not mention that the amount of preparation that is recommended by the Red Cross is at the level most people do automatically. The Red Cross certainly doesn't talk about buying grains and long-term water storage. They like to cite some of Senator Bennett's warning statements from last year, but fail to indicate that he now expects that there will be no major system outages. Likewise, they cite FEMA's call for preparation, but fail to indicate that their concerns are for city and local agency preparations for Y2K. However, FEMA states quite clearly on their website, "There is no indication at this time that the Y2K problem will cause national disruptions in basic infrastructures such as electric power, telecommunications, banking, and transportation."⁷⁵ Many Christian organizations have adopted a Y2K disaster paradigm, and are now reluctant to let it go. They have already decided that Y2K is going to be a monumental problem. A big problem is a big opportunity for the church to reach out to others. If Y2K isn't going to be such a big problem then the church won't be able to help. Therefore, they feel the need to maintain the paradigm at all costs - many times by including the use of deception. This must stop! Jesus has called us to be set apart from the world (and its immoral tactics) (Matthew ch. 5-7). Peter tells us that the first thing to be added to our faith is virtue. "And beside this, giving all diligence, add to your faith virtue; and to virtue knowledge" (2 Peter 1:5). Christianity will receive a bad name (deservedly so) if we use the immoral tactics of the world.

My Advice

Because of the potential for chaos caused by widespread panic, I recommend preparing for scenarios that could result from Y2K panic, since I believe Y2K could be a self-fulfilling prophecy, if the myths and misrepresentations seen on many Internet sites are not refuted. Such misinformation may lead to panic over what might happen, which would be worse than any Y2K computer glitch. It is possible that this panic could cause a stock market crash, runs on banks and a worldwide recession. Already, drug companies are worried about their ability to respond to panicked stocking of prescription medications. According to Dr. Charles Popper (Merck & Company), "If people start stockpiling, that will create more of an issue than Y2K itself... If demand were to double or triple in a short time, we will get spot shortages and people won't get their medicines."⁷⁶ This affects me personally, because my wife requires ~$200/month in anti-seizure medication. If she is unable to get this medication, she could experience a seizure that could put her in the hospital.

I make the following recommendations based primarily on the potential of Y2K panic, rather than because of an actual Y2K problem. I believe you should have a month's supply of food. The Red Cross recommends one week's supply at most.⁷⁷ Since I live in an earthquake area (Los Angeles, CA), we already have an extra supply of food and water. I believe that all Christians should have an extra supply of food and water for emergencies. If there is a natural disaster, we should be the ones to reach out with the love of Christ to our neighbors (which is why I recommend a month's supply). Begin to accumulate an extra supply of food and other essentials before the end of December, 1999. If you wait until the panic of 1999, it could be too late! I expect that there could be shortages of supplies of food and other essentials (from panic, not Y2K) toward the end of December, 1999. I don't want to give specific financial advice, but I think it is likely that a panic could lead to a stock market crash or serious correction. If you have money invested in small businesses or businesses with ties to foreign suppliers, I would be very careful to check out their Y2K readiness and their contingency plans in case of supply interruptions. Try to anticipate the need for government services (especially local governments) before the end of the year. Get all your forms, paperwork, etc. before the end of the year. Keep copies of everything you receive from and send to local, state and federal agencies. It is possible that records from some governmental agencies may be difficult to obtain for several weeks after the beginning of 2000.

I also recommend getting together with your neighbors to prepare for Y2K panic-related problems. Cooperation will lessen the impact of problems in your neighborhood.

Ultimately, my advice is to stay informed and try to get a balanced perspective. If you are browsing the Internet, stay with the informed sites, such as The Year 2000 Information Center and specifically, their Year 2000 Press Clippings. Be aware that many sites want you to panic so that you will buy whatever they are selling. If they make a claim and do not back it up with a specific current reference, don't believe it. That advice goes for this site, too. Check the references!

Summary

Year 2000 issues present serious challenges to computer systems worldwide. Systems that are not remediated will face serious failures that will significantly impact the people that rely upon those computers. Problems in software will be responsible for most failures, the vast majority of which will not occur on or around January 1, 2000. A spike of failures from embedded chips that have not been replaced will occur at the century change. Although these failures will be few (only 1 in 100,000 chips in unremediated systems will fail) they can be potentially serious. However, imbedded chips fail only once, and if the system can be restarted the embedded chips will not fail again until the next century change.

Fortunately, for us in the United States, most of the computer systems have already been fixed and nearly all of the remainder will be fixed before the end of the year. In short, the United States will experience few if any failures in critical services - electricity, utilities, telecommunications, banking, transportation, federal and state governments, etc. This is not to say that there will be no problems. Nearly every business will experience Y2K-related problems - either in actual failures (most of which can be quickly fixed) or in supply disruption problems. Most failures will occur in small to medium-sized businesses and local government agencies that have failed to adequately address Y2K issues. Significant challenges remain:

• Many small businesses have not remediated their systems - some failures likely
• A few local government agencies have failed to perform Y2K remediation - some failures likely
• Significant failures in basic critical services for many third world, middle east, and far east nations²⁰
• Potential supply interruptions (less than one month likely) of computer chips and electrical equipment to U.S. industries from far east suppliers⁷⁸
• Potential oil supply interruptions from middle east exporters. However, strategic oil supply reserves will minimize impact for at least 3 months.
• Potential world-wide recession

Some of my friends expect that Y2K issues will have no impact in the United States. It appears that the initial impact of the century date change in the United States will be minimal. However, long-range consequences of supply interruptions could significantly impact the U.S. and world economies, causing at least a mild recession. However, there is no way to prepare for the economic impact of Y2K other than increasing the level of your savings.

Links to other rational Y2K Sites:

• I'M O.K. Y2K by Bob Hagen, a computer and electrical engineer who has worked on the Y2K problem
• Y2k: What's Really Going to Happen? from the International Christian Technologists' Association (ICTA)
• Y2K site at Christian Computing Magazine
• The Challenge Ahead from Christian Computing Magazine (talks about the most serious Y2K problem - loss of Christian credibility due to overstated Y2K problems and serious economic problems caused by panic as a result of overstated Y2K problems.
• Year 2000 bug is creating a religious schism
• Christian Y2K alarmists irresponsible
• Year 2000 Press Clippings

Contact Richard Deem at Rich Deem

References

1. Preparing the Electric Power Systems of North America for Transition to the Year 2000. September 17, 1998. North American Electric Reliability Council, p. iii.
2. Preparing the Electric Power Systems of North America for Transition to the Year 2000. September 17, 1998. North American Electric Reliability Council, p. ii.
3. Preparing the Electric Power Systems of North America for Transition to the Year 2000. September 17, 1998. North American Electric Reliability Council, p. 1.
4. Preparing the Electric Power Systems of North America for Transition to the Year 2000. September 17, 1998. North American Electric Reliability Council, p. 9.
5. Preparing the Electric Power Systems of North America for Transition to the Year 2000. September 17, 1998. North American Electric Reliability Council, p. 18.
6. Preparing the Electric Power Systems of North America for Transition to the Year 2000. September 17, 1998. North American Electric Reliability Council, p. 22.
7. Preparing the Electric Power Systems of North America for Transition to the Year 2000: A Status Report and Work Plan Fourth Quarter 1998. January 11, 1999. North American Electric Reliability Council, p. 13.
8. Preparing the Electric Power Systems of North America for Transition to the Year 2000: A Status Report and Work Plan First Quarter 1999. April 30, 1999. North American Electric Reliability Council, p. 14.
9. Preparing the Electric Power Systems of North America for Transition to the Year 2000: A Status Report and Work Plan Second Quarter 1999. August 3, 1999. North American Electric Reliability Council, p. 14.
10. Preparing the Electric Power Systems of North America for Transition to the Year 2000 A Status Report Update Third Quarter 1999. November 18, 1999. North American Electric Reliability Council, p. 1.
11. Preparing the Electric Power Systems of North America for Transition to the Year 2000: A Status Report and Work Plan First Quarter 1999. January 11, 1999. North American Electric Reliability Council, p. 21.
12. Preparing the Electric Power Systems of North America for Transition to the Year 2000: A Status Report and Work Plan Fourth Quarter 1998. January 11, 1999. North American Electric Reliability Council, p. 21.
13. Preparing the Electric Power Systems of North America for Transition to the Year 2000: A Status Report and Work Plan Second Quarter 1999. August 3, 1999. North American Electric Reliability Council, p. 17.
14. Trapping a Computer Bug: Year 2000 Fixes Moving Faster Than Predicted from The Washington Post
15. Preparing the Electric Power Systems of North America for Transition to the Year 2000: A Status Report and Work Plan Second Quarter 1999. August 3, 1999. North American Electric Reliability Council, p. 27.
16. Preparing the Electric Power Systems of North America for Transition to the Year 2000: A Status Report and Work Plan First Quarter 1999. January 11, 1999. North American Electric Reliability Council, p. 32.
17. Lights out? Y2K appears safe from The Cincinnati Enquirer
18. Utilities are optimistic about Y2K preparations Any bugs are likely to be minor ones from Dallas Business Journal
19. Gartner Symposium: Embedded systems will not fall prey to Y2K bug from VNU Business Publications Ltd
20. Year 2000 Global State of Readiness and Risks to the General Business Community from Gartner Group
21. Big Companies On Track For Y2K Compliance from CMPnet.
22. City rolls back clock as Y2K solution from The Evansville Courier
23. Cities counting down to 2000
24. The Minus-28 Solution from DCI IT News
25. Feds crack down on few banks still unprepared from the Orlando Sentinel
26. Bankers ready to lead way to Y2K solution from The Business Journal
27. NCUA's mission-critical internal systems are Y2K-ready from the Credit Union Times
28. Three industries pass Y2K tests from the New York Times
29. Fed On Y2K: We're Ready from CMP Media Inc.
30. Banks worldwide pass ambitious Y2K test from Reuters
31. Y2K: Medical technology vulnerable to bug from Forum Communications Company
32. Hospitals say they're ready for Y2K from USA Today
33. 94 percent of S&P 500 firms to be Y2K compliant by September from Dallas Morning News
34. No company is free from Y2K woes from the Dallas Business Journal
35. Getting an early Y2K jump from PCWeek Magazine.
36. Y2K solutions hide date problems from apps from PCWeek Magazine.
37. YEAR 2000 PROGRESS - Federal Departments and Agencies November 15, 1999 from the House Subcommittee on Government Management, Information, and Technology
38. Report Card YEAR 2000 PROGRESS - Federal Departments and Agencies November 15, 1999 from the House Subcommittee on Government Management, Information, and Technology
39. High Impact Federal Programs' Year 2000 Readiness from the House Subcommittee on Government Management, Information, and Technology
40. Taxes: Y2K, With Optimism from the AP News Service
41. Labor Dept. Makes Grade In Y2K from CMP Media Inc.
42. FEMA Urges Local Communities, Emergency Services Sector & Public to Get Ready Now for Y2K from the FEMA site
43. Y2K worries fail to leave post office out of sorts from Copley Newspapers
44. Railroad lines Y2K ready from the Daily Herald
45. Gartner Group: Expect major Y2K failures in second half from PC Week
46. Voice of reason drowned out in sea of Y2K scaremongers from The Sun Herald
47. MSDW Survey Shows Trends in 1999 I.T. Budgets from dci.com
48. Cobol Coders Miss Big Payday: Year 2000 crisis was supposed to lead to $100,000 jobs, but just try to find them now from Computerworld, Inc.
49. Life after Y2K: A backlog of projects will keep programmers in high demand long after 2000 dawns from The Business Times
50. Y2K proves to be no big payday for Peritus Software from the Boston Business Journal
51. Y2K watch: Will chips work in the year 2000? from The Wichita Eagle
52. Air Controllers: Millennium Risk Near Zero from Fox News
53. Y2K bug is no-show as agents book 2000 travel from The Detroit News
54. FAA says it's Y2K ready from Computerworld
55. Bank Interfaces from Westergaard Online Systems
56. FEMA takes steps to make smooth transition into 2000 from the St. Louis Post-Dispatch
57. `SKY IS NOT FALLING' FROM COMPUTER BUG, EXPERTS TESTIFY from the Chicago Tribune
58. THE Y2K REPORTER: Y2K Disclosure S&P 500 Companies: Lots of Laggards, Third Quarter 1998, from Ed Yardeni's Web site.
59. Y2K doomsayers should chill out from the Globe Technology
60. Sen. Bennett's Y2K Message: Calm but Alert from Westergaard Year 2000 site
61. Y2K Bug Will Begin With A Whimper, Not A Bang from Reuters Limited
62. Y2K expert: Power, planes, banks won't fail: Much of doomsday talk about computer problem comes from those with 'an axe to grind' from The Ottawa Citizen
63. Major Y2K Food Shortages Not Expected from The Washington Post
64. Arming for Y2K from Wired News
65. National, Local Utilities Y2K-Readiness Tests Fairly Successful from the San Diego Daily Transcript
66. Because of the increase of wickedness, the love of most will grow cold, (Matthew 24:12)
67. When he opened the fifth seal, I saw under the altar the souls of those who had been slain because of the word of God and the testimony they had maintained. They called out in a loud voice, "How long, Sovereign Lord, holy and true, until you judge the inhabitants of the earth and avenge our blood?" (Revelation 6:9-10)
68. For then there will be great distress, unequaled from the beginning of the world until now--and never to be equaled again. (Matthew 24:21)
69. If those days had not been cut short, no one would survive, but for the sake of the elect those days will be shortened. (Matthew 24:22)
70. And the one on whom seed was sown among the thorns, this is the man who hears the word, and the worry of the world, and the deceitfulness of riches choke the word, and it becomes unfruitful. (Matthew 13:22)
71. Be on guard, that your hearts may not be weighted down with dissipation and drunkenness and the worries of life, and that day come on you suddenly like a trap (Luke 21:34)
72. Gary North & Y2K
73. You belong to your father, the devil, and you want to carry out your father's desire. He was a murderer from the beginning, not holding to the truth, for there is no truth in him. When he lies, he speaks his native language, for he is a liar and the father of lies. (John 8:44)
74. Fed Prepares Extra Cash For Y2K from Y2KToday.
75. Y2K Questions from the FEMA website.
76. Drug companies prepare for Y2K: Fears that patients will stockpile pills spur firms to map out sales patterns from MSNBC
77. American Red Cross - Y2K Preparedness from the American Red Cross
78. United States technology imports susceptible to 15 day Y2K delay from International Monitoring

http://www.godandscience.org/general/y2k.html
Last updated December 5, 1999