An Estimate of the Probability for Attaining the Necessary Parameters for Life Support
Parameter | Probability that feature will fall in the required range |
---|---|
galaxy size | .1 |
galaxy type | .1 |
galaxy location | .1 |
star location relative to galactic center | .2 |
star distance from closest spiral arm | .1 |
z-axis extremes of star's orbit | .1 |
proximity of solar nebula to a supernova eruption | .01 |
timing of solar nebula formation relative to supernova eruption | .01 |
number of stars in system | .2 |
star birth date | .2 |
star age | .4 |
star metallicity | .05 |
star orbital eccentricity | .1 |
star's distance from galactic plane | .1 |
star mass | .001 |
star luminosity relative to speciation | .0001 |
star color | .4 |
3H+ production | .1 |
supernovae rates and locations | .01 |
white dwarf binary types, rates, and locations | .01 |
planetary distance from star | .001 |
inclination of planetary orbit | .5 |
planetary axis tilt | .3 |
rate of change of axial tilt | .01 |
planetary rotation period | .1 |
rate of change in planetary rotation period | .05 |
planetary orbit eccentricity | .3 |
surface gravity (escape velocity) | .001 |
tidal force | .1 |
magnetic field | .01 |
albedo | .1 |
density | .1 |
planetary crust thickness | .01 |
oceans-to-continents ratio | .2 |
rate of change in oceans-to-continents ratio | .1 |
global distribution of continents | .3 |
frequency and extent of ice ages | .1 |
asteroid and comet collision rate | .1 |
change in asteroid and comet collision rates | .1 |
mass of body colliding with primordial Earth | .002 |
timing of collision with primordial Earth | .05 |
rate of change in asteroid/comet collision rate | .1 |
proximity and mass of Jupiter | .01 |
major planet eccentricities | .1 |
major planet orbital instabilities | .1 |
drift rate and rate change of major planets | .1 |
atmospheric transparency | .01 |
atmospheric pressure | .1 |
atmospheric electric discharge rate | .1 |
atmospheric temperature gradient | .01 |
carbon dioxide level in atmosphere | .01 |
oxygen level in atmosphere | .01 |
chlorine level in atmosphere | .1 |
iron quantity in oceans | .1 |
tropospheric ozone quantity | .01 |
stratospheric ozone quantity | .01 |
mesospheric ozone quantity | .01 |
water vapor level in atmosphere | .01 |
oxygen-to-nitrogen ratio in atmosphere | .1 |
quantity of greenhouse gases in atmosphere | .01 |
frequency and extent of forest and grass fires | .01 |
soil mineralization | .1 |
quantity of sea-salt aerosols | .1 |
quantity of decomposer bacteria in soil | .01 |
quantity of mycorrhizal fungi in soil | .01 |
quantity of nitrifying microbes in soil | .01 |
quantity of sulfur in soil | .1 |
quantity of sulfur in planet's core | .1 |
tectonic activity | .1 |
volcanic activity | .1 |
decline in volcanic activity | .1 |
viscosity of Earth's core at core boundaries | .01 |
biomass to comet-infall ratio | .01 |
regularity of cometary infall | .1 |
dependency factors (estimate) | 100,000,000,000 |
longevity requirements (estimate) | .00001 |
Probability for combined occurrence of all 75 parameters = 10-99
Maximum possible number of planets in universe = 1023
Taken from Ross, H. 1998. Big Bang Refined by Fire. Reasons To Believe, Pasadena, CA.
By putting together probabilities for each of these design features occurring by chance, we can calculate the probability of the existence of a planet like Earth. This probability is 1 chance in 1099. Since there are estimated to be a maximum of only 1023 planets in the universe (10 planets/star, see note below), by chance there shouldn't be any planets capable of supporting life in the universe. Our existence suggests divine intervention and design. The design and care with which the laws of physics, the universe, our galaxy, our solar system, and the planet Earth were crafted suggests that God is caring and loving. He put in a lot of time in the design and creation of the universe so that we would have a nice place to live for such a short period of time.
Back to The Incredible Design of the Earth
Note: This is most likely a huge over estimate. In a recent survey of globular cluster 47 Tucanae, scientists found zero extrasolar planets out of 37,000 stars searched (Astronomers Ponder Lack of Planets in Globular Cluster from the Hubble Space Telescope).
References
Cited literature for the estimates presented here can be found on the main design page, The Incredible Design of the Earth.
Today's New Reason to Believe
Integrating Science and Faith
- 11/05/2012 12:52 AM
Imperial College Debate on Evidence for God
In spring of 2012, my colleague Kenneth Samples and I spent several days in London, England, speaking in universities, churches, leadership gatherings, and at a conference. God gave us a wonderful opportunity to take RTB’s message of science-faith compatibility overseas. Here I recap my interactions with distinguished professor Lewis Wolpert. **** On May 24, 2012, … Read more
() - 11/01/2012 12:30 AM
Resource Highlight: Creation Day Debates
Earlier this week, guest writer Otis Graf explained how the ejection dynamics of meteoroids from the star Beta Pictoris and the meteoroids’ detection on Earth cannot be reconciled with a young universe—thus challenging young-earth proponent Dr. Jason Lisle’s model for solving the distant starlight problem. RTB’s Hugh Ross and Fazale Rana have debated Dr. Lisle … Read more
() - 10/29/2012 12:44 AM
Alien Particles Challenge a Young-Earth Creation Model
A collimated beam of meteoroids from the star Beta Pictoris has been discovered. However, the ejection dynamics at the star and the meteoroids’ detection on Earth cannot be reconciled with a young universe. This discovery directly challenges two tenets of young-earth proponent Dr. Jason Lisle’s model for solving the distant starlight problem. **** The 1950s … Read more
() - 10/25/2012 12:05 PM
TNRTB Classic: Basking in UV Radiation
On Monday, guest writer and visiting scholar Hugh Henry discussed research into the effects of radiation on the human body. Despite our fear of radiation, it seems that God has designed the human physiology to withstand a reasonable about of exposure. Check out this previous TNRTB from Fazale Rana on how our DNA reacts to … Read more
() - 10/25/2012 12:34 AM
TNRTB Classic: Basking in UV Radiation
On Monday, guest writer and visiting scholar Hugh Henry discussed research into the effects of radiation on the human body. Despite our fear of radiation, it seems that God has designed the human physiology to withstand a reasonable about of exposure. Check out this previous TNRTB from Fazale Rana on how our DNA reacts to … Read more
() - 10/22/2012 12:50 PM
“Deadly” Radiation and God’s Design
A feature article in the August 2012 issue of Scientific American trumpets a scary warning: “Deadly Rays from Clouds—Thunderstorms Give Out Powerful Blasts of X-Rays and Gamma Rays.”1 Headlines are written to grab the reader’s attention—whether or not the article’s content lives up to the hype. At the end of this particular article, the authors … Read more
() - 10/18/2012 12:26 AM
TNRTB Classic: Increased Oxygen
Earth experienced many events that brought it to the brink of becoming a barren wasteland. Two dramatic increases in the atmospheric oxygen content (2.5 and 0.8 billion years ago, respectively) resulted in mile-thick ice sheets that nearly encased the planet. Yet Earth rebounded from all these events, better prepared for the new life that arrived … Read more
() - 10/15/2012 12:17 AM
First Plants Bring Major Climate Change
RTB’s creation model posits that the change in life throughout Earth’s history reflects the work of a divine intelligence transforming a hostile-to-life planet into one capable of supporting humanity. As the environs change, so must the life. Studies of the first plant life on the continents show how the plants altered the land and atmosphere … Read more
() - 10/11/2012 12:36 AM
TNRTB Classic: Junk DNA and the Nucleoskeletal Hypothesis
A few days ago I wrote about the ENCODE project and the new recognition that, at minimum, 80 percent of the human genome consists of functional DNA elements. Despite some skeptics’ complaints that the media, creationists, and intelligent design adherents have misconstrued the ENCODE report, the project’s results stand. The human genome is not a vast … Read more
() - 10/08/2012 12:26 AM
Responding to ENCODE “Skeptics”
Recently, the ENCODE Project Consortium reported that 80 percent of the human genome consists of functional elements, major indicators of design. But some skeptics assert (loudly) that the results of the ENCODE project have been overhyped and misconstrued. In this article, I respond to the most salient points made by the ENCODE “skeptics.” The human … Read more
()
http://www.godandscience.org/apologetics/probabilitieslife.html
Last updated March 31, 2008